Latest / John’s Newsletter / The Calm Before The Storm, Election Night 2026

Transcript

The Calm Before The Storm, Election Night 2026 · John’s Newsletter

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Trump Revolution,
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_01: where we explain what's going on in America, John, to a nervous world,
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_01: and it's game day.
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, it's election day, 7 a.m. here in Arlington, Virginia.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: You just got in, what, 48 hours ago from Italy?
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: We managed to have a nice dinner where we talked about john's upcoming wedding.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: Congratulations, john.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: You know, this is our community.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: And it was a wonderful way to begin.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: But now we are very much down to business.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_01: And as we go into election day, and we're going to do a bunch of these today,
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: we're not going to say one or where, but like last time,
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: you will get lots of content.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_01: But I wanted to start with the two of us having kind of a view.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: And we've explained in the background what's going on here.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: We've explained the big national picture
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: that historically Trump doesn't defy gravity, number one.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: Uh three only three times since the civil war has the party
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_01: in power retained house seats so it's not the house is gone uh but it is
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: a national election and trump at 39 is killing republicans
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_01: and moderates have deserted him and drove 60 20 from winning over camelot and now
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: and those are the big pictures but john rightly said there's the next level
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: of analysis which is for today it's john's thesis I'm going to hand it to him
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_01: in a sec but basically All that's true. All that matters.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_01: But then individually, there's a lot going on.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_01: It's a giant continent of a country.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_01: And different things are happening in different places that we want you to be aware
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_01: of, as these results come in.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_01: So john, without further ado,
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_01: over to our expert who's actually been knocking on doors,
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: been out in the countryside, been doing the work.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: And so while I sit on Mount Olympus or jet lagging in the BA lounge hating them,
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: it's better to hand it over to john john explain this theory,
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_01: which I think is exactly right.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, I think it's pretty common sense that maybe it's overused a lot.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: But politics is local.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: All politics is local.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: And the names that are on Senate ballots tonight are actually going to matter.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: There's also a lot of governor races tonight.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: I know we haven't made necessarily an official call there.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: But Republicans will no longer have the majority of governor seats in the country.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: So if you want to call there, there's the call.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats will have the majority of governor seats moving forward,
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: which is incredibly important when it comes to things like certifying elections,
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: your actual local and state politics.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: And honestly, what I worry about with this election is people kind of overreacting
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: to the failures of this administration and out of anger voting for people
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: that they're really not going to be Happy with not knowing that individual candidate
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: in some states, for example, in New Jersey,
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: it's very likely that the democrat nominee in the congressional,
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'm blanking on the congressional district right now, but you can look it up,
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: it'll be the first thing you look up, New Jersey congressional race, Al-Qaeda.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: The democrat nominee who will win tonight, Is, has direct,
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: and this is not an Abdul El-Sayed dancing on the line.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: This is somebody who defended a person who was prosecuted as part
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: of the 9-11 attacks, and they will become a congressperson tonight.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: But all politics is local.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: There are states around, I was up in New Hampshire recently,
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: where you have the Sununu name on the ballot.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: Republican candidate, brother of Chris Sununu, most recent governor of New Hampshire.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, very popular governor, son of John Sununu, another popular governor.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody knows the Sununu name in New Hampshire.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: And this is where running your local government also matters,
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: is that Republicans run the state house in New Hampshire.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: They run the Senate in New Hampshire.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: And one of the things that they were able to do to try to drive up their propensity,
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: their turn out, Is they added a ballot question to cap property taxes in the state,
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: and there is no early voting in the state.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: So that's a state that I've watched tonight is maybe being closer than a lot of people suspect.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: Kelly Ayotte will likely rewin her governor's seat, another Republican governor,
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: and then liberal New England states.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: Scott over in the neighboring state in Vermont is also up for reelection,
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: also a Republican, but also these independent voices of Republicans are doing
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: a lot better ones that are trying to stick out as individuals,
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: compared to the person themselves, whereas in a place like Michigan,
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: I think we'll probably see Syed.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: He's underperformed compared to the governor's race.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: I think that there's still a chance that he could kind of slide in here.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: He's had a turbulent landing into the election between the Haley Stevens endorsement
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: and his 60 Minutes interview.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: I guess you're just going to see penises anywhere,
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: so it doesn't matter if they're in the locker room.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_01: So he can still slide through,
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: but if you're a progressive and you look at probably what will be
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: the vote difference between where Syed ends up tonight,
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: And where the governor's race ends up tonight,
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: it'll probably be an eight point difference.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_01: Now, just taking this about Senate races,
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_01: one we haven't called and we should talk about, and where the individual matters.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_01: And we've said this before, you know,
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: Trump is not to blame for all the Senate losses, but he certainly is in Texas,
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: if that comes where Paxton is not a very nice man and a horrible candidate.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: Trump's never been able to endorse well.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: Dr. Oz, Herschel Walker, Paxton.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_01: If you love Trump, he'll endorse you rather than if you're a good candidate.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: Back to individuality.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_01: Texas is a plus four, plus five state still for Republicans,
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_01: meaning if they run a garden gnome who is Cornyn, the old senator.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: He's solid, boring, dependable, but doesn't like Trump.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_01: And so immediately he's primaried by Paxton, a horrible man though he is.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_01: Borderline corruption, borderline ethics.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: And he wins because of the base of the party and Trump's endorsement.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_01: But individuals, moderates don't like him, but no one does.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_01: And so he's taking a seat that is eminently winnable by all I mean,
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: normally,
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: this guy would lose by six, seven, and we wouldn't be talking about it.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_01: But Paxton is so awful, and Trump endorses so badly that this is an example of your theory.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: Another example, it often takes away that the...
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: The loyalty trump demands yeah the way the individuality that somebody can run
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: with I recently was talking with former governor,
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: Chris Christie of all people about this exact issue and I saw him at he.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: A gentleman that I think it would is a better governor than he would be
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: a president I agree with him on a lot of status on me out on national issues,
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: but he brought up the Bush days and one thing that Bush did so well.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: In terms of elections, was that he told people in places like New Jersey,
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: up in New Hampshire, Vermont, we won 2000, we won New Hampshire.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's why we won the presidency.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: And he told those governors, beat me up if you have to, run your race,
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: how you have to win your race.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: It allowed them to be the individuals that they could actually get elected.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: And you're about to bring up Kansas.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: This is one where they're really trying to not have no individual Howdy, our candidate.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to leave Kansas to you because you know that.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_01: But yes, I mean, Kansas, which we haven't talked a lot about, could well go.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_01: Democratic.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_01: And if it does, first of all, this isn't happening since probably the populace.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_01: And secondly, it means the Knights of Sun.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: It's the canary in the coal mine.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_01: If Republicans are losing Kansas.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: If we start losing Kansas and Iowa.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: In Iowa, game over.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: If Kansas, Iowa.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: We're talking 53.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: 54. 54.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: 54 is possible.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah. Yeah. We're not worried about our call.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_01: You might notice we're not mentioning it because there's nothing to worry about for this reason.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_01: But I'll leave Kansas to you.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_01: But Collins is the other example.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_01: I still think despite the polling she could well win.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: I believe so.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: Because she always outperforms her polls in Maine.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: She actually is liked locally.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: She's a New England Republican, the last Rockefeller Republican,
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_01: which are the only people who are going to win in New England. Right.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: And she's been left alone, picked at Trump where she has to.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: And as a result, she's not going to go down with the ship. So Keep an eye on Maine.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: Another interesting one is that right up there in CD2 in Maine,
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: which is the northern part of Maine,
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: for those of you that remember our electoral map, our electoral votes,
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: Maine splits its votes, if you remember, right?
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: The southern part of the state has a few electoral votes,
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: and the northern part of the state has a couple more.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: That northern part of the state is called CD2.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: Congressional district is what that means for folks that are abroad
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: or don't know our system when we say CD.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: We don't mean the compact disc.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_00: We mean Congressional District.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_00: Everything in Washington, D.C. is terrible.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: But the former Republican Governor, LePage,
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: is running for CD2 in the seat that Jared Golden is left for. Vacant.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_00: Jared Golden retired.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: He saw the writing on the wall.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: That'll likely be one of the very few congressional flicks that Republicans actually get.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: And between LePage and Collins, two popular independent Republican names,
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: I could very much see Collins pulling it out.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_01: And as you say, because of the individuality. She will.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: And so Texas kills us because it's not individual.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: Maine may save Republicans because it is individual.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: Certain races to watch.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think Ohio, my home state, is lost again because of a good local candidate.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_01: Because Sherrod Brown is a liberal populist who can talk to steelworkers,
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_01: coal miners, etc, in a genuine way for 25 years.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_01: He is what he is, an FDR liberal, he's liked, he's a member of the community,
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_01: and no one even knows what Husted looks like.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_01: He's an empty suit, cheerleading for Donald Trump.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_01: And so Ohio, which is now Republican, it's not a swing state anymore,
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_01: it's plus five, plus six for the Republicans, is going to be won, most likely,
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: he's up by three, I think, by Sherrod Brown,
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_01: because he happens to be a good local candidate.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: And over to Kansas with that candidate.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, the only candidate is very compelling.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, no, of course, and I think this is where...
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: I hope democrats don't misunderstand their mandate at night is the fact
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_00: that somewhere like Kansas can be competitive where you have
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: a very moderate democrat running um if things really get ugly tonight look
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: for potential independent being close in nebraska
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: as well um I mean it's it's truly is a mandate on what has failed policies
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: in this second trump administration particularly The Iran war,
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: the effects that it's had on gas prices.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I drove to get my car serviced yesterday, 30 minutes.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: It took me about four hours total during the day.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: When I drove here in Virginia, gas prices were $3.98 on my drive to the dealership.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: On my drive back.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: Exact same gas stations, they were already up 10 cents, 408 a gallon, just like that.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: Every American. And especially in places like the Midwest.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: I live in Ballston, Virginia.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: I can walk everywhere I go.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: In all honesty, the gas prices really haven't impacted my day to day life that much
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: because I walk everywhere.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: When I used to live in the Midwest, when I spent time in Iowa,
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: You drive every single place you're going.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: We're like the gilet jaune in that way.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_01: The French elite didn't realize that farmers need tractors to get places.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_01: And they can't just walk to the next arrondissement on the metro.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_01: And that's their clueless. Same thing here.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_01: Is every American knows the gas price, and every American knows,
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_01: and I don't buy the lefty argument here, what Trumpism is broadly.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_01: It's tariffs to do industrial policy.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_01: It's closing the border and dealing with immigration in a new way.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_01: It's no stupid wars, and it's dealing with the Jacksonian base,
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_01: which in the first term he actually helped.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_01: They did better economically than the rest of the country for the first time
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_01: in like 30 years, and this is great.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_01: The war hits almost all of that.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_01: You fight a stupid war of choice that fails, the Strait of Hormuzes close,
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_01: gas prices skyrocket up.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: Nobody cares about the day -to -day goings on of the war.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_01: We'll get back to this later. We do.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_01: But no one else does.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_01: They care about that he fought a war of choix which led to new inflation on top
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_01: of what Biden did.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_01: He didn't care about the base And the tariffs in their scattershot way are kind
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_01: of a draw. Right.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_01: When you add all that up, that's a disaster.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what's going to happen.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: And the reality means that Kansas is available for Democrats tonight.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: Iowa is potentially on the table. It is. It's within a point.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_01: For Democrats tonight. Points.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um I mean it could be a very bad night but then it's up to the democrats
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_00: to not misunderstand their man and and let's
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_01: end this one with that because I think they will I think ironically
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_01: for 2028 this helps republicans because democrats even like biden biden won
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_01: by like six votes
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_01: and he thought he was lyndon johnson it was 1964 he kept saying I have this mandate
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_01: to totally raise your taxes and the difference
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_00: We should dive more into that, not only tonight.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_01: What's her name, the Hillary Clinton staffer who lost the party?
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_01: Haley Stevens said, who's very pro-Israel, said, I can't,
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: this guy won't get away from Hassan Piker, the hate-mongering America deserved 9-11,
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_01: all this stuff. Crazy stuff.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_01: He's, in effect, the senator from Gaza.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_01: And this mirrors Europe's red-green leftist alliance in France, Melenchon,
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_01: and the irredentist Islamofascists, really.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_01: And that's what we're dealing with.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_01: This is not part of the American...
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_01: And so the Hillary staffer looks at this and said, I just can't do this.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_01: And the Democrats haven't even begun to deal with the Democratic Socialists
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_01: and this hardcore Mamdani.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_01: We're citizens of the country.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_01: We don't really love America.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_01: We don't even really like America.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_01: We don't like Americans.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_01: We can't believe you got ahead. It's unfair.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_01: And now we're going to make you suffer.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_01: That's not really part of the American experience.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: And a lot of Democrats have to decide what to do because they can win tonight.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: But can they win in 2028 and what remains?
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: And that'll be why we will want to look at the difference between actual races themselves.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: And again, it's going to be the best place for that.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: Watch for what is the difference between the governor's ticket in Michigan
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: and the Senate ticket. That'll be a very clear message.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_01: I agree. And I think a key point that you make there is that.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_01: He underperformed massively in winning like nine points.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, huge polling error.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: And people say they vote for him.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: And then they go to the polls and they're like,
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_01: I just can't vote for a guy who's best friends with a guy wearing a Mao suit,
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_01: telling the kids who are economically illiterate Americans.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_01: America's responsible for all the evils of the world and deserve 9-11.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_01: Most working Michiganders do not hold that view.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_01: And if they go down that road and say we won tonight,
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_01: they love socialism now when the country remains center right.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_01: And it's not a wrap on the knuckles for Trump, but a wrap on the knuckles for capitalism.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_01: America, 2028 is going to be a very good Republican year.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_01: So we will spend a lot of time over them over interpreting this mandate.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's a good place to go.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely. We will see you all tonight.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: And for those of you that have been waiting for the Dead Realist Society for Hemingway.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: We're coming. We got to eat our vegetables.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: Our vegetables are tonight.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: We will get to Hemingway next week.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: We'll do the bio.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: We got a little excited ahead.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: Head of our skis when we announced our next series for Dead Realist Society.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_01: And I think, by the way, the subtitle of our series is people actually writers
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_01: for a change in a bar who would win a bar fight.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_01: And we're going to do McMurtry, John Steinbeck, Raymond Chandler, and Ernest Hemingway.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_01: In a bar fight, we'd be fine.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so that you still all have that to look forward to.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: But let's eat our vegetables, get through this election.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: We'll be with you throughout the day.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: I'm actually going to go vote here myself.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_01: Good man. Take care.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_01: See you guys soon.