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Is Clock Rule Or Defense Issues To Blame For Ohio State's Missing Possessions? · Buckeyes TomOrrow Morning

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  Welcome to Buckeyes tomorrow morning for Tuesday, September twelfth, I'm your host,
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  tom Or. The Western Kentucky game is in four days. The game against
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  Michigan in seventy four days. You may be sitting here right now and wishing
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  that time would go a little quicker between now and the start of that Western
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  Kentucky game, but just to be patient, because once that game starts,
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  it does feel like that time is going to speed up a little bit during
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  that game. That's sort of been the experience for Ohio State the first two
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  games of this season against Indiana and Youngstown State, and the consensus seems to
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  be it's probably because of the clock rules, unless you're one of the people
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  who thinks it's just because the defense can't get off the field. Ryan Day
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  was asked about that at the beginning during his press conference after that Youngstown State
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  game, and just what's the deal with that? Why is why are you
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  getting so many fewer possessions and so many fewer plays than you typically have during
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  a during previous years in similar games. So we're going to start by letting
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  you hear the answer there, and the answer was involved of the fact that
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  Youngstown State was really kind of running that play clock down to limit the number
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  of plays the Ohio State got. You know, that's that's why we took
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  the ball early. I felt like maybe that would be their game plan.
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  I didn't know that they would, you know, huddle and milk it all
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  the way down to inside of ten seconds and then try to run it on
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  third down just to keep the clock going. But they did, and that's
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  smart on their end, and maybe maybe some teams are going to do that
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  more and more. And it does create a level of anxiety because we're used
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  to getting about fifteen possessions a game and scoring sixty and seventy points, but
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  we had nine possessions. We're not used to have a nine possession at sixty
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  plays. There's a lot of guys that we're trying to get out in the
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  field and get touches too, and play and play when you only have sixty
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  plays every single rep, I mean, you got to be on point,
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  and you know there's going to be certain guys that don't touch it when they're
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  sixty point sixty plays. So yeah, I mean every time there was a
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  third down and or you know, a first down on defense, I mean,
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  I was like, I was struggling because I know what where we were
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  headed. So, you know, it's a defense's job to hold the hold
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  the other team to you know, well not scoring very many points, and
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  they've done that IB three and seven. You can't ask for much more.
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  But in a game like this or the other teams trying to just milk the
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  clock and limit your possessions, Yeah, we will love to see this get
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  off the field more. So we'll look at the film and see where that
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  was and see if we can find out what the execution breakdowns were. All
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  right, So there Ryan Day at the end sort of mentioning the execution breakdowns
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  part of that part of that equation as well. We're going to try and
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  sort out how much of this is the new clock rules. How much is
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  this is the defense not being able to get off the field or the offense
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  maybe not executing on a third down to extended drive. And we're gonna be
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  doing that with our buddy Tony gerdamantfuckey huddle dot com. He's been looking at
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  this this week, trying to do a little bit of a scientific analysis at
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  this, and Tony, this is kind of a difficult thing. To do
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  because we're working with relatively small samples here, and there's a lot of variables
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  at play with you know, teams trying to run the clock down more.
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  And are they running the clockdown more because of the clock rules or is it
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  just that they're approaching things a little differently than team a year ago. But
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  what is your sort of overall sense right now in terms of how much the
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  clock rules are really impacting how much Ohio State? You know, how many
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  drives Ohio State's getting, and how many snaps Ohio States getting in games so
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  far this season. Yeah, and I think these are all separate issues.
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  In terms of how many possessions Ohio State is getting, how many snaps o
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  Higo States is getting, how many points Ohio State is scoring. These are
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  all separate issues, and how quickly is the defense getting off the field,
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  all separate things that coexist in the same sphere. But in terms of the
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  clock rules and the impact on the Ohio State possessions, I think that is
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  absolutely happening, and that isn't I don't know how you can argue that now.
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  What you can argue is that the clock rules, some would say,
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  are having an effect on o High State's offense. I don't think within each
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  offensive possession the clock rules should have an issue, because you know you're existing
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  within that possession and there's no reason that clock should keep you from scoring unless
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  you're in like the last thirty seconds or whatever, Like you've got the ball,
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  go do what you need to do. The clock shouldn't keep you from
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  executing. So I think those are two different things that can coexist, and
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  we can agree that the lack of points isn't because of the clock, but
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  the clock issue is also a real thing. And I think the reason I
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  will say that the points being scored right now isn't a clock issue is because
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  how often is Ohio State trying to score in the fourth quarter of games?
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  Generally generally these are mostly blowouts and they're just trying to get the day done,
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  so they're not necessarily trying to score points in the fourth quarter, so
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  they do the bulk of their business, I would say, in the third
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  quarter, unless it's a game against Penn State, So you know, scoring
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  in those first three quarters is essentially what Ohio State is trying to do now,
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  and it's still not happening. So the scoring the offense is an issue
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  the clock creates other issues. And I think one of the things that Brian
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  Day has talked about is that with fewer possessions, there is more pressure on
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  every single possession now, especially on getting off the field on third downs and
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  picking up third downs, because if you failed to pick up a third down,
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  you could be on the sideline for three to seven minutes of talk time
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  and you may have one more possession in that quarter or that half, or
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  no more possessions, depending on how things go. Yeah, and this is,
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  you know, this is not a brand new thing, especially in games
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  like this. I think the closest you know, comparison from last year's schedule
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  to this year's schedule for the Youngstown State game is probably the Arkansas State game
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  last year and the Arkansas State game last year, just in terms of quality
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  of competition or lack of quality of competition. This year, Ohio State had
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  sixty snaps against Youngstown State, thirty three passes, twenty seven runs, so
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  sixty snaps. Last year against Youngstown State they had a similar They had the
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  smallest number of snaps that they had all season against young Against Arkansas State have
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  seventeen thousand tabs open. Here we go fifty four snaps for Ohio State.
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  Now, they had five hundred and thirty eight yards on those fifty four snaps,
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  So when you're putting up ten yards per play, you don't really notice
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  that you've only got fifty four snaps. But Arkansas State last year was able
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  to do something similar to what to what Youngstown State did, where they put
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  up an eleven play fifty six yard drive to kick a field goal in the
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  first half, of five play fifty yard drive to kick a field goal in
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  the first half, fourteen play fifty eight yard drive to kick a field goal
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  in the first half, and then a ten play forty three yard drive in
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  the third quarter. These are all very long drives. Only one of those
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  drives went over five minutes. It was four minutes in three seconds a minute
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  fifteen six minutes and fifty three seconds and that fourteen play drive, but you
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  know, four forty six and the ten play drive. It just they did
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  not have a bunch of real extended long drives in terms of the clock,
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  and that I think is maybe where you're starting to see a little bit of
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  difference because this year our Youngstown State had an eleven play forty three yard drive
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  that took seven minutes and thirty six seconds off the clock the end their last
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  drive of the game ten plays thirty nine yards, five minutes and two seconds.
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  First drive of the game eleven minutes, eleven plays seventy five yards,
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  five minutes and fifty two seconds. So, you know, I think to
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  me, I look at that, and this is about as close to apples
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  to apples as you're going to get in terms of quality of competition in this
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  type of game for Ohio State. And it feels like, you know,
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  it's not night and day there, but in both cases where the defense couldn't
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  get off the field, you're leaching another forty five seconds to a minute off
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  the clock on each of those drives, on those ten play eleven play type
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  drives. So you know, to the question, is it that the defense
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  can't get off the field? Is it that the flock rules are impacting things?
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  It feels a little bit to me like the answer is yes. All
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  of the answers in this discussion are yes in some way or another. Even
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  looking at the snaps right now, Higher State has had more snaps in the
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  first two games, like four more snaps than they did in the first two
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  games. Last year. So the people who are saying, well that there's
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  more more snaps, so the clock isn't impacting the game, you know,
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  they're just they throw out all of the other stuff in terms of any type
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  of argument that the clock is impacting the game. Well, Higher State has
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  had four more snaps in the first two games than they did last year,
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  but three fewer drives, and that's counting the drive they had at the end
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  of this pass game, which was just twenty five seconds and three meel downs.
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  They had twelve drives, twelve possessions against Arkansas date I think eleven against
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  Notre Dame, and they've had twenty so far in these first two games.
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  So the possessions, the actual plays, they're down like on average, I
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  think four from last year over the course of the entire year. But it's
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  the possessions that I think are going to be impacted all year long. And
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  you know this stood out to me after the first game against Indiana when they
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  had ten possessions. So I went back and looked at the you know,
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  last year twenty twenty two, the fewest possessions they had in the game was
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  eleven. They hadn't had a ten possession game since Michigan in twenty twenty one.
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  Now they had three that year, but they didn't have any others until
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  they had to go back to twenty eighteen to find a ten possession game,
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  and they had two that year, and they had two in twenty seventeen.
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  So this is something that happens once or twice every couple of years and has
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  now happened two consecutive weeks. And Ohive State has had to work hard in
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  terms of barely getting those ten possessions each game because a first down here or
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  there for either team turns ten possessions into nine. And so the nine possession
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  game is something we can also talk about. Yeah, and just before we
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  get to the nine possession game, want to I want to just kind of
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  give you a little perspective here on Okay, when you have a little bit
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  more of a talent is equated kind of situation. Alabama and Texas last week,
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  both teams had twelve possessions, and that's with Texas having a fourteen play
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  eighty two yard drive that took six minutes off the clock and a twelve play
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  thirty four yard drive at the end of the game that chewed up the last
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  seven fourteen, So you know that very easily could have been a twelve.
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  It was a twelve, could have very easily been a thirteen possession if thirteen
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  possession game if Alabama gets one stop here or there. So you know,
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  maybe more of an issue when you're in a game where one team is intentionally
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  trying to shorten the game. But it feels like that's kind of a strategy
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  that you're probably going to see a lot of teams trying shorten games against Ohio
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  State where you have a real talent deficit, like a Youngstown State or an
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  Indiana Do or you know, maybe a Western Kentucky Western. I'm expecting Western
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  Kentucky throw the ball around a little more, but you know they're gonna play
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  Rutgers. Guess what Rutgers is going to do. But what's interesting is you
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  duck up a stat on the you know, before Saturday where they had functionally
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  a nine drive game. The last team to have a nine drive game against
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  Ohio State was one that is known famously for running the ball, shortening the
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  game to kind of make up for the you know, perceived end or real
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  talent deficit that they face going up against most other teams. Yeah, And
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  the last time I hirest It had a ninth possession game was Army in twenty
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  seventeen. When that's that's Army's m keeping the ball on the ground, burning
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  the clock, running in the running the ball, of running the clock as
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  much as they can. That's how far you have to go back. And
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  that's just that that's a non traditional offense, non traditional opponent that required Ohio
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  State to only have nine possessions, And now that is almost becoming the norm
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  against what we would consider traditional everyday opponents, and so I think that is
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  something to take into account out. You know, Michigan had nine possessions in
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  their season opener against East Carolina, and when I wrote about that in Michigan
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  Monday and mentioned that, you know, if that continues, that might impact
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  Michigan because over their first nine possessions against Ohio State last year, they had
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  rush for thirty five yards. So if Michigan Ohio State only get nine possessions
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  in the game, it might be a very different kind of circumstance. But
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  to then, you know, nine possessions against Army, you know, when
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  was the last time they did it against an actual, real life opponent.
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  You'd have to go back to twenty thirteen against Iowa, the last time there
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  is a nine possession game for Ohio State. That's how far you have to
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  go back. And it's against Iowa, who will Kirk Ferrets hasn't changed anything
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  in terms of his offense, and they will bleed the clock as much as
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  they can. Think the time before that Wisconsin in twenty ten, again a
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  Wisconsin offense that will try to bleed the clock. So these are the situations
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  that you're talking about having nine possessions, and it's these are outliers Army,
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  Iowa, Wisconsin, and you have to go far into the past to find
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  them, like twelve parsecs Tom these this is your first two opponents. You're
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  you're lucky to have gotten ten possessions, and your defense get off the field.
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  The defense is given up five points a game right now like they're doing.
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  They shouldn't be. You shouldn't be losing this many possessions or losing any
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  possession because a defense is only giving up five points per game, like the
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  defense should not be the issue here. Giving up five or twelve or third
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  downs against the Yawnstown State is not good, but it shouldn't be you gave
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  up twelve first downs. You shouldn't be giving up thirty four minutes of time
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  of possession on twelve first downs. Yeah, it feels like this might be.
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  Not that the new clock rules have completely changed the game, not that
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  the third downs are either the make or break for everything, it just feels
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  like it's maybe made those third down plays a little bit more high impact.
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  That boy, if you can't get off the field on a third down,
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  well, you know, okay, this is going to mean an extra whatever
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  the number is thirty seconds something like that between plays. That twenty thirty seconds
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  that are you know, is additional off the clock, and that just continues
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  to snowball as the number of first downs continues to snowball. I certainly would
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  assume, Tony, that we are going to see teams continue to use the
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  strategy against Ohio State. So, you know, other than get off the
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  field on third down, is there? You know, what do you do
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  if you're Ohio State? As Ryan Day said, you make the most of
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  every possession you have, and it makes those possessions even more important. You
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  have to be more efficient yet to be more exacting. He told the team
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  that going into the game. So it's everything is more important, more valuable,
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  so you have to treat them as such. And does that mean you
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  go for it on fourth down somewhere? Maybe, depending on where I guess
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  from everywhere, because if you give it up, if you fall short on
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  fourth down in your own territory, that means it's going to be a shorter
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  drive for the opponent and you'll get the ball back. So hey, it's
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  a win win for you. But looking at the so I went back and
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  looked at the most recent times Hio State has given up twelve first downs to
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  an opponent because I wanted to know, because we said it after the game,
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  after the Youngstown State game, I said it, thirty four minutes on
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  twelve first down. Sure seems like way too much time of possession for that
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  few of first downs. And I hate hate using seams as fact, you
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  know, So I wanted to go back and look because so the last eight
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  times that Ohio State has given up exactly twelve first downs to an opponent,
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  and you won't be surprised on three of those opponents were Rutgers and three were
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  Michigan States. But over those eight games, the time of possession averaged twenty
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  five minutes and fifty seven second so basically eight fewer minutes than what Ohio State
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  dealt with against Youngstown State. Now, in the interest of fairness, I
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  will say that Rutgers had it for thirty three oh five last year with twelve
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  first downs, and they milked that like a dairy farmer going on the verge
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  of bankruptcy. They were trying to get every last drop out of that clock.
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  Yeah, so not a not the first time a lower level team is
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  going to use that kind of strategy in Ohio State, but it seems like
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  it might be at least somewhat more effective this year, depending on you know,
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  with the new clock rolls, and well, you know, this is
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  also we're working let's acknowledge that this you know, once again, we are
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  working with a relatively small data set here. We may get to week eight
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  and then all the numbers have sort of stabilized and normalized and come closer to
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  the historical norms and then this ends up being a big nothing burger. But
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  you know, with it this being as hot a topic this week, we
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  wanted to take a little bit more of a you know, an intentional look
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  at this rather than just sort of making assumptions really really interesting numbers there.
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  I think, and you know this is this is one of these times where
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  I think that the people who are saying it's all the clock rules are not
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  quite right, and the people who are saying, well, just get your
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  defense off the field are not quite right. It's the answer is probably a
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  little bit in the middle there. But we will see this weekend whether Ohio
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  States Defense can get off the field against Western Kentucky, and if not,
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  how many possessions they'll get and whether they'll be able to get the offense clicking
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  as it has been in previous seasons. Will be keeping an eye on that
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  one this weekend and all the all week starting with Bryan Day's press conference coming
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  up at noon on Tuesday. We'll be st that live at YouTube dot com
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  slash Buckeye Huddle should be talking to Jim Knowles as well on Tuesday. Then,
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  well, I'm gonna just throw this out there and then we'll be contractually
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  obligated to do it. I'm gonna guess we'll do some kind of a live
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  show after the interviews with Ryan Day and Jim Knowles on Tuesday. That might
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  be your Wednesday Morning, Buckeyes Tomorrow Morning Show, and then Tony and I
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  will have our rewatch of the Ohio State Youngstown State game on the Buckeye Weekly
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  Feed. On Tuesday, we have Michigan Monday already up for you at YouTube
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  dot com slash Buckeye Huddle and I'm your podcast platform of choice on the Buckeye
• 18:33
  Weekly podcast feed. And then lots of coverage all week as the Buckeyes get
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  ready to take on Western Kentucky the Hilltoppers and their wonderful mask got Big Red.
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  I can't wait. I hope he's there. Might have to take a
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  Mark pick with Big Red on the sidelines on Saturday. That would be You
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  know, they say never meet your heroes, but I might make an exception
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  in this case. So looking forward to that and looking forward to seeing all
• 18:56
  of you guys at Buckeye Huddle dot com. Let me ever, we have
• 18:57
  a fantastic team inside covering the team, Mark and Alex covering the recruiting,
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  Justin and Devin and Mikey and Ross covering the excess and nose making you a
• 19:07
  smarter football fan all at Buckeye Huddle dot com. That will do it for
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  today. Thank you guys all for joining us up a great day. We'll
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  talk to you tomorrow.