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Data From FOIA Request Uncovers Hidden EB-5 Processing Bottlenecks · IMI Podcasts

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: The American Immigrant Investor Alliance, also known as AIIA, a nonprofit organization that advocates for EB5 investors, recently published the latest EB5 filing statistics obtained via a Freedom of Information Act request.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: The AIIA, represented by the Galati Law Firm, filed a lawsuit to compel USCIS to release this vital data.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: This dataset contains immigrant investor petition distributions, for example, Forms 1526 and I-526E by EB5 category and country of chargeability from April 2022, when the EB5 Reform and Integrity Act was passed, to January 2025.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: This information is crucial for understanding potential visa backlogs and estimated wait times in the newly reserved EB5 categories.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: Immigration professionals can better serve clients by anticipating these trends.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: The pending inventory of I-526 and I-526E petitions is especially important because it captures an invisible backlog that is not visible in the cutoff dates in the U.S.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: Department of State's visa bulletin.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: USCIS doesn't regularly publish pending petition numbers, creating this hidden cue.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: This is because these petitions have not yet reached the visa stage of the immigration process.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: They are currently pending before USCIS, and these applicants will eventually apply for visas or use visa numbers when the adjustment of status application is approved.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: Once USCIS approves a petition for an immigrant investor, it will then grant lawful permanent resident LPR status, also known as green cards, based on the availability of visas, according to laws established by Congress in the Immigration and Nationality Act.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: Backlogs occur when demand exceeds the statutory limit.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: The invisible backlog indicates the growing number of people who will eventually apply for visas when the USCIS approves their petitions.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: Based on the data AIIA obtained, prospective investors may assess the potential timeline to obtain green cards.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: Pending applicants can understand the status of their cases, and EB5 investment issuers can protect their investors by advocating for visa relief.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: Conversely, the non-availability of this information could have disastrous consequences for the program and the investors from backlogged countries.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: A major reason for the unbearably long backlogs for EB5 investors from China who invested after 2014 and investors from India who invested after 2018 is that no such information was available to them when they decided to invest.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: Many entered the program expecting minimal wait times based on current priority dates.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: Unfortunately, these investors did not anticipate the interminable length of USCIS's adjudication process, leading to decade-long backlogs for these investors in the visa bulletin when the USCIS approved pending petitions and finally transferred them to the Department of State.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: China has accounted for a majority of the petitions filed after the passage of the EB5 Reform and Integrity Act in March 2022.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: It is an extension of the country's dominance in EB5 filings over the last decade.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: The second largest country of chargeability for investors is India.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: Although they accounted for less than a fifth of the total, the remaining investors came from the rest of the world, or the ROW, accounting for 30% of the total.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: It is interesting to note that investors from China and India were equally interested in rural and high unemployment area, also known as HUA, categories over the period, with a slight edge for HUA.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: By contrast, about 70% of ROW petitions went to HUA and only 30% to rural.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: It shows that Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam accounted for about a combined third of the ROW petitions.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: It is noteworthy that Russia, Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil make up a reasonable share of the ROW petitions, although far behind Taiwan, Vietnam, and South Korea.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: Monthly filing trends show a March 2024 spike due to USCIS fee increases.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: This pulled demand forward, causing a five to eight month slump before volumes recovered to pre-spike levels.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: Three notable market trends emerge from the data.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: EB5 demand has increased since April 2024 across all targeted employment area categories and country groups.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: Rural demand consistently outpaced HUA demand for the first time, and China continues to generate the strongest overall demand growth.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: By the end of January 2025, a total of 5,191 investors had filed I-526 or I-526E petitions in the HUA set-aside category, and 4,329 investors had filed petitions in the rural category.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: These figures entail a demand of approximately 10,400 HUA visas and 8,700 rural visas, taking into account the estimated dependent petitions and denial rates.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: The figures far exceed the statutory annual visa availability of 1,000 HUA set-aside visas and 2,000 rural set-aside visas.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: Individual wait time estimates are difficult to calculate because there are multiple factors, including the country of chargeability and the complexity of a case.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: The basic laws of supply and demand, however, still apply.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: When visa demand exceeds visa supply, wait times increase.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: The backlog risk is especially concerning for applicants from mainland China and India, considering that demand remains high in these countries, which are limited to 7% of available visas, plus the remainder unused by the rest of the world.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: Answers to this question will vary depending on the investor's country of birth and whether they are currently in the United States.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: If an investor born in China is still living there and wants to do EB5, it is important to inform them that whether they invest in a rural or HUA project, it will take them several years before they are able to move to the United States on a green card.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: If that investor was already living in the United States on a non-immigrant visa, they would be able to obtain a work and travel permit within a few months based on their EB5 investment.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: If a China-born investor were to invest in a project that is in a rural area, they may get their green card slightly sooner, given the increased number of visas available in that category.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: For India, the situation is a bit unique as both the rural and HUA categories have a backlog.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: The AIIA has previously predicted that the unreserved category for India will clear by 2030.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: Hence, it seems likely that Indian investors investing in either set-aside category will face a visa backlog, but at the same time may be able to obtain a visa from the unreserved category if that continues to clear at the current pace.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: If the investor is born anywhere else in the world, the choice of the EB5 project is best left to them.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: The rural category continues to have a faster pace of adjudication than HUA, a fact that may entice more investors, but many foreign investors tend to prefer investing in locations with which they are more familiar, and these generally tend to be in urban parts of the country.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: The three scenarios mentioned above are my best predictions about the state of the EB5 program based on the current data available today.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: The situation continues to evolve based on the supply of and demand for available visas and the pace of adjudication at USCIS.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: To better serve your clients, you must be aware of the current state of things and make the right disclosures as needed.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: This episode first appeared as an article by Dilip Parameswaran on IMIDaily.com.
• 7:56
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