Latest / Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update / Big Payroll Revision Sparks New Debate | S2 E075 | 09-10-25

Transcript

Big Payroll Revision Sparks New Debate | S2 E075 | 09-10-25 · Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update

• 0:01
  Megan Horneman: That payroll revision was such a big miss.
• 0:03
  Megan Horneman: It's kind of hard to believe.
• 0:04
  Megan Horneman: It's Wednesday, september 10th, and this is Markets with Megan.
• 0:07
  Megan Horneman: If you like this podcast, please subscribe.
• 0:10
  Megan Horneman: Hit that alarm bell.
• 0:11
  Megan Horneman: You can share with friends, family or colleagues.
• 0:13
  Megan Horneman: But we're here today, as always, to break down that economic data that you receive and what that means for the markets.
• 0:19
  Megan Horneman: Well, yesterday we got the annual revisions of payrolls for the US economy and we get this around September every year and the Bureau of Labor Statistics goes back and revises all of the payroll data that we receive each month.
• 0:34
  Megan Horneman: If you've listened to our podcast, you know that that first week of every month is a big month for the markets because we get the employment data and this is also what several economists and the Federal Reserve look at to decide where we are in that labor market and what does that mean for interest rate policy.
• 0:51
  Megan Horneman: Well, yesterday we received the annual revision and we actually created 911,000 less jobs than were originally reported throughout the year.
• 1:02
  Megan Horneman: That is the biggest downward revision that we've seen for an annual basis since the pandemic, and if you just take the pandemic out of it, you've got to go all the way back to the aftermath of the Great Recession to 2011, to see a downward revision this much.
• 1:19
  Megan Horneman: If we look at where some of these were revised, the lowest you can see it was in the trade sector.
• 1:26
  Megan Horneman: You can look at professional and business services and then one of the big areas that's been such a strong contributor since the pandemic has been leisure and hospitality.
• 1:37
  Megan Horneman: But we actually created 176,000 less jobs than were originally reported.
• 1:43
  Megan Horneman: This report is important because we do have the Fed meeting next week and the Federal Reserve is now.
• 1:49
  Megan Horneman: It's 100% probability they'll cut interest rates by 25 basis points because the labor market is much weaker than has been reported.
• 1:57
  Megan Horneman: If you take that rolling 12-month sum, you can see this is at 1.47 million jobs.
• 2:04
  Megan Horneman: This does justify the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points.
• 2:09
  Megan Horneman: The question is, will they go further and go 50?
• 2:12
  Megan Horneman: We still have more inflation data to look at.
• 2:15
  Megan Horneman: We'll be back this afternoon with some information out of the producer price index and then tomorrow we'll get the consumer price index.
• 2:23
  Megan Horneman: These two data points will pretty much solidify what the Fed does do at their meeting next week.
• 2:29
  Megan Horneman: Thank you very much.
• 2:30
  Megan Horneman: If you want a history of our podcast, you can go to marketswithmeganfm.
• 2:33
  Megan Horneman: Thank you.