Latest / The SPY Trader / SPY on Gains: The Bullish Thrust

Transcript

SPY on Gains: The Bullish Thrust · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hello and welcome to another episode of Spy Trader!
• 0:03
  I'm your host,
• 0:04
  Chuck Dough,
• 0:05
  and it's 6 PM on July 17,
• 0:08
  2024,
• 0:08
  We've got a jampacked episode today with major movements and insights in the S&P 500,
• 0:14
  If you’re ready to spy on some trading opportunities,
• 0:18
  let's dive right in!
• 0:19
  First up,
• 0:20
  let's talk about the rare Whaley Breadth Thrust Indicator that has been triggered,
• 0:25
  This indicator shows a significant rise in participation among the nonmegacaptech components of the S&P 500,
• 0:32
  Historically,
• 0:32
  this indicator has a 100% success rate one year out,
• 0:36
  with an average return of 23%,
• 0:39
  Can you say "bullish"?
• 0:40
  It has only triggered 15 times since 1950,
• 0:43
  so this isn't something you see every day!
• 0:47
  So what’s going on?
• 0:48
  The S&P 500 rally is not just being pushed by the tech giants but by a broad range of stocks,
• 0:56
  which is a good sign for continued upward momentum,
• 1:00
  Factors like a favorable CPI report for June,
• 1:03
  potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve,
• 1:06
  and the potential Trump election win in November are all contributing to this bullish signal,
• 1:12
  In tech news,
• 1:13
  we've seen declines in companies like Nvidia,
• 1:16
  AMD,
• 1:16
  and Broadcom,
• 1:17
  With the Biden administration considering tougher restrictions on chip exports to China,
• 1:22
  semiconductor stocks are feeling the heat,
• 1:24
  Also,
• 1:25
  the Fed’s Beige Book showed slight economic growth and cooling inflation,
• 1:29
  which is leading to talks of possible rate cuts,
• 1:33
  TSMC,
• 1:33
  a major player in the semiconductor world,
• 1:36
  reported a Q2 profit forecast jump of 30%,
• 1:39
  driven by high demand for its advanced chips used in AI applications,
• 1:44
  But it's not all smooth sailing; TSMC’s stock took a hit after Trump’s comments on Taiwan's chip business,
• 1:51
  sliding around 8%,
• 1:52
  As TSMC plans its massive expansion in Arizona,
• 1:56
  competitors like Intel and Samsung are also stepping up their game,
• 2:00
  Now,
• 2:00
  let's brighten the mood with a joke,
• 2:03
  Why was the math book sad?
• 2:06
  Too many problems!
• 2:07
  Looking at the dollar,
• 2:08
  it's at its lowest level in nearly two months,
• 2:12
  while the yen has strengthened significantly due to speculation of potential intervention by Japanese authorities,
• 2:18
  This strengthens the broader narrative of market volatility driven by geopolitical factors,
• 2:23
  Alright,
• 2:23
  let’s break down these insights and move into some trading recommendations,
• 2:27
  Given the rare bullish signal from the Whaley Breadth Thrust Indicator and its flawless historical track record,
• 2:34
  it seems wise to stay invested in the broader S&P 500 and look for potential upticks over the coming year,
• 2:42
  However,
• 2:43
  considering the recent pressures on tech and semiconductor stocks,
• 2:46
  be cautious with names like Nvidia,
• 2:49
  AMD,
• 2:49
  and Broadcom,
• 2:50
  These stocks may see more instability as the geopolitical chip saga unfolds,
• 2:55
  For those looking into tech,
• 2:57
  diversifying your investments outside of just semiconductor stocks could provide some safety and capture upside potential from other tech sectors benefiting from the S&P 500’s broad participation,
• 3:07
  Regional bank stocks have been rallying following hints of potential rate cuts,
• 3:12
  Stocks like PNC and US Bancorp have surged recently,
• 3:16
  and there might be more room for growth if rate cuts materialize,
• 3:21
  Keep a close watch on midsized lenders who could benefit from these anticipated cuts,
• 3:26
  For a touch of real estate,
• 3:29
  increased housing market inventory and easing competition could play out favorably for home construction companies within the S&P 500,
• 3:36
  Real estaterelated stocks may benefit from more balanced market conditions and the eventual stabilization of housing prices,
• 3:43
  While geopolitical factors,
• 3:44
  including the impact of the RussiaUkraine situation and USChina relations,
• 3:48
  cannot be ignored,
• 3:49
  diversification remains key,
• 3:50
  Having a balanced portfolio across various sectors can help mitigate these risks,
• 3:55
  That's all for today’s episode of Spy Trader!
• 3:58
  Keep your eyes on the market and don’t forget to tune in every few hours for the latest updates and insights,
• 4:07
  Until next time,
• 4:08
  I’m Chuck Dough saying happy trading and,
• 4:11
  remember,
• 4:11
  watch those indicators—they might just spy some gains for you!